Critical Study of Tourism and negative effect it has on the Environment Free Essays

Presentation The travel industry is a worldwide industry of extraordinary monetary significance, driven by human want to encounter new situations, be it the indigenous habitat of a tropical sea shore or the fabricated condition of an old city. Individuals are making a trip consistently to various pieces of the world for long haul remain on various purposes like excursion, conferences, and amusement is Tourism. These individuals are typically called as tourist’s . We will compose a custom exposition test on Basic Study of Tourism and negative impact it has on the Environment or then again any comparable point just for you Request Now Gathering of organizations or administrations which are subject to the travel industry is by and large called Tourism Industry .Tourism industry has gotten one of the fast developing industry over the world. The interest is expanding step by step. Most the travel industry places on the planet appear to be France, Spain, USA, China, Italy and the UK. (Charmaine 2010) Numerous nations rely intensely on movement consumptions by outsiders as a wellspring of tax assessment and as a wellspring of salary for the ventures. Accordingly, the improvement of the travel industry is frequently a system to advance a specific locale to expand trade through sending out products and enterprises. Accordingly it gives direct work to the individuals related with occupations in bars and inns. The normal way of life of individuals builds well and simultaneously joblessness is on the abatement. Be that as it may, travelers cause ecological harm through woods fires, annihilation of sand hills and contamination. Thusly this serves contrarily as expanded contamination upsets nearby inhabitants and furthermore it might dishearten sightseers from further entering the nation. After this, travel industry subverts culture by commercializing it and this is regularly associated with expanding litter, spray painting, vandalism and clamor †visitors don't generally regard customary societies. There are various advantages of the travel industry for both the traveler and the host goal. For an enormous scope it offers a decent option in contrast to some increasingly dangerous businesses for producing pay both on broadly and secretly. The travel industry includes various regions, so it additionally makes occupations in a wide range of zones. With the travel industry come inns, eateries, vehicle rental organizations, visit organizations, administration stations, gift shops, athletic gear rentals, and considerably more. The entirety of this makes a wide range of levels of work for individuals in a given network. The travel industry is exploiting the interest and working more on the improvement side, and accordingly some provincial spots are additionally getting created. The most generally observed favorable circumstances profits by the Tourism incorporate new openings, pay, and expense income to the legislature. The travel industry is likewise bringing the information on that specific spot to the world, and redesigning the neighborhood social offices, or an upgrade of local preservation endeavors .Generally, the travel industry is entirely gainful in the terms of salary for the nations, particularly to those which are in the creating stage, as this industry doesn't require parcel of education or capital. Also, it returns great benefits with less venture. (Blake and Albache 2008) The travel industry gives truly necessary outside cash and remote speculation .The economy of underdeveloped nation can blast through this and the populace benefits too .Development should address the issues of the present without trading off the capacity of people in the future to address their own issues . So the travel industry should work today for the better existence of future residents. As the nation has progressively monetary sources, presently it tends to be utilized for the enhancements of the frameworks like streets, transportations and correspondence joins which again will be valuable for both the nearby individuals and to the voyagers. Because of expanded interest of the travel industry, ecological advancement issues will be considered by the legislature to draw in sightseers. Legitimately or by implication Tourism will likewise be liable for the improvement of the neighborhood instruction standard. (Debbie 2003) Advantages getting from the travel industry improvement must be adjusted against likely negative impacts. Employments in the movement and the travel industry are every now and again low-paying and occasional and frequently offer restricted advantages. Now and again, especially where the travel industry systems are incapable, neighborhood occupants may need to pay for the travel industry promoting and framework through higher expenses. The travel industry can likewise expand interest for land in country territories, which may blow up land costs, conceivably putting the expense of lodging past the span of the normal neighborhood occupant. This is the situation for some comfort rich the travel industry goals, encountering development lately originating from amusement based exercises (Brown and Fazzone, 1998). The travel industry may legitimately prompt unattractive spread in provincial zones by making an interest for improvement. Other negative symptoms incorporate conceivably higher paces of wrongdoing and more prominent interest for nearby administrations, for example, police and fire assurance and sanitation administrations, which can be costly to give. Likewise, the travel industry can hazard changing the provincial â€Å"sense of place† for certain networks. Expanded swarming and traffic clog may likewise result with a convergence of vacationers into a territory. More prominent interest for neighborhood expressions and artworks can likewise conceivably prompt a bringing down of the nature of these items. At long last, the travel industry dangers corrupting normal assets in country territories unless3 ecological supportability endeavors are embraced. A significant number of these dangers, be that as it may, can be relieved if legitimate arranging is utilized at the beginning of the travel industry advancement. (Holden 2007) Supportable the travel industry in its most flawless sense is an industry which endeavors to have a low effect on the earth and nearby culture, while assisting with creating pay, work, and the preservation of neighborhood environments. It is dependable the travel industry that is both biologically and socially delicate. (Beech and Chadwick 2005) Manageable the travel industry exercises have insignificant effect on the earth and culture of the host network. As indicated by the World Tourism Organization, feasible the travel industry is the travel industry that prompts the administration of all assets so that financial, social and tasteful needs can be satisfied while keeping up social trustworthiness, basic environmental procedures, natural assorted variety and life emotionally supportive networks. Taking a leaf from the meaning of maintainability itself, supportable the travel industry is additionally characterized as a procedure which addresses the issues of the current visitors and host networks while ensuring and upgrading needs later on Sustainability standards allude to the ecological, monetary, and socio-social parts of the travel industry improvement, and a reasonable equalization must be set up between these three measurements to ensure its drawn out supportability. (Goodwin 2000) Practical Tourism alludes to a degree of the travel industry movement that can be kept up over the long haul since it brings about a net advantage for the social, financial, normal and social situations of the territory in which it happens. The United Nations World Tourism Organization characterizes practical the travel industry as the travel industry that addresses the issues of present voyagers and host locales while ensuring and improving open door for what's to come. As opposed to being a sort of item, it is an ethos that supports all travel industry exercises. All things considered, it is basic to all parts of the travel industry advancement and the executives as opposed to being an extra segment The target of supportable the travel industry is to hold the financial and social points of interest of the travel industry advancement while lessening or alleviating any unwanted effects on the characteristic, noteworthy, social or social condition. This is accomplished by adjusting the necessities of vacationers with those of the goal. Feasible the travel industry is the travel industry that is financially, socio socially and naturally maintainable. With reasonable the travel industry, socio social and ecological effects are neither lasting nor irreversible. (Steward 1999) Reference index Blake, A., J. S. Arbache, et al. (2008). â€Å"Tourism and neediness relief.† Annals of Tourism Research Accessible from: http://The Disadvantages of Tourism in Developing Countries | Suite101.com http://www.suite101.com/content/the-weaknesses of-the travel industry in-creating nations a292259#ixzz1MQA3Ciue Head servant, W. 1999 ’Sustainable tourism’ London: Rutledge. Accessible from: http://www.informaworld.com/10.1080/14616689908721291 Charmaine, M. 2010. ‘Land Pollution Effects on Tourism’ Accessible from: http://www.ehow.com/about_6643366_land-contamination impacts tourism.html Debbie, S. 2003.’Travel Tourism Marketing’. Accessible from: http://www.travelandtourism.com/10.1300/J073v17n04_05 Goodwin, H. 2000. ‘Tourism and Biodiversity’ Accessible from: http://egis.cefe.cnrsmop.fr/Tourism%20Frontpages/Boniface%20article.htm Holden, A. 2007. ‘Environment and Tourism’ London: Routledge. Accessible from: http://www.routledge.com/books/subtleties/9780415399555/ Step by step instructions to refer to Critical Study of Tourism and negative impact it has on the Environment, Essay models

My first fight Free Essays

I was a savage lion. I lost my temper wildly. Nathan was draining unendingly from his nose. We will compose a custom paper test on My first battle or on the other hand any comparable theme just for you Request Now Blood attributed on my correct knee and my left hand. The whole play area stood unmoving. I could see every single individual taking a gander at me with sheer adoration. They looked at me like I was a lion and Nathan was a gazelle, paying little heed to Nathan being for all intents and purposes twice my height. I can in any case recall the occasions of my first battle as though they occurred yesterday. I was pushed in to participating in such a despicable occurrence on the principal day of grade school during my initial a half year in the nation. My uncle uncovered to me that the explanation that I had not started school promptly was on the grounds that my family showed up to the nation partially through the scholarly year. My family and I had quite recently begun to settle down in the nation, adjusting to the climate and nature when my folks injured me with the news that they had discovered me a school to effortlessness with my quality. Trying to get familiar with another dialect was requesting enough, not to mention new youngsters, educators and books every one of whom communicated in an alternate language. Most of my classmates had all gone to the nursery and newborn children before entering grade school. In this manner, I didn't share, or identify with the encounters they shared together, such as playing with the sand building manors, contending in different skipping games, riding on bikes, savoring milk the evenings and having a fabulous time with the paint. Thus, I felt perplexed by such a large number of inquiries hurrying through my head. Is it true that i would be acknowledged into one of or any of these gatherings of multi year olds? Is it true that i would be the just one without an accomplice when accomplishing combined work? Is it true that i would be the just one sitting unaccompanied in the feasting corridor? Lamentably, the occasions that occurred irritated me more than I anticipated. On the primary day when the instructor was acquainting me with the class, I felt so unbefitting and embarrassed when she advertised I had quite recently shown up from another nation. There was that brief instant when a portion of the youngsters saw me like I was a pariah, an outsider. Voices were murmuring from each edge of the room â€Å"who is he?† I felt secluded, remote, and could never have considered that following two days their considerations would be in actuality. In the wake of being acquainted with the class by my educator, Ms handling acquainted me with Carl, who might go with me for the afternoon. She at that point situated the pair of us on a table with two other kids Nathan and David. It was the ideal opportunity for proficiency hour and everybody needed to expound on what they achieved over the half-term break. As my aptitudes were not to the standard of different youngsters, I chose to have a top at what the others were expounding on. Surprisingly, no one really appeared to accomplish any work separated from Carl, who later spent most of the morning meeting at the can. In the interim, David chose to smell a blend of pens, which right up 'til today I believe is impossible to miss. Nathan had recorded the title â€Å"My First Fight†, yet then began to doodle on an immaculate new table. David carried his sniffing to a stop and started a discussion with Nathan about football. The remainder of the class were having amazingly uproario us discussions, in scorn of the teacher’s various yells to finish the clamor. It appeared that she had positively no power over individuals 33% of her age. All things considered, there was one individual who immensy affected the class, Mrs Fassal, the representative head educator. The subsequent she strolled in the class was so calm a pin drop could be heard. As she strolled in she had a snappy look around the study hall and she got mindful of the vandalizing offense Nathan had submitted. She cried at our table asking â€Å"Who did it?† There was a slight interruption. The entire class was tuning in as though they were a group of people to a decision. Mrs Fassal yelled once more, â€Å"Who did it?† â€Å"The new kid did it Mrs Fassal†, Nathan asserted. â€Å"Yeah, the new kid did it Mrs Fassal†. David charged. â€Å"And you Carl, did you see anything?† â€Å"No Miss, I was at the toilet† Carl answered. I felt caught like a wild creature in a confine large enough just for a mouse. I was so goaded with Nathan’s anger, censuring me for his steady vandalizing acts. Regardless, I had an inclination that soon, very soon, Nathan would pay for his shocking allegations. Mrs Fassal would not tune in to any of my weeps for help. Nonetheless, she held me back at morning break and hollered at me so boisterous, Carl later said he heard her in a play area loaded with shouting kids. In the wake of morning break, I stayed with Mrs Fassal until noon, yet I was authorized to have my mid-day break. As Carl was my escort for the afternoon, he welcomed me to play a round of football with him and his companions. In any case, some of Carl’s associates especially Nathan, appeared to be tense regarding the matter of permitting me to take part in entertainment. I was not annoyed in the scarcest manner, even so Carl figured out how to convince them for me to join the game. During the initial five minutes of the game, I didn't contact the ball, rather I chose to perceive how everybody played. It developed that Nathan was genuinely the greatest in contrast with different young men and was utilizing this furthering his potential benefit. I saw that all Nathan was doing was shaking anybody that drew close to him, or at whatever point he needed the ball. None of the players appeared to stand up to Nathan or give any indication of distress. Rather, they gave out the impression they were alarmed Nathan would hurt them on the off chance that they gave any indication of perturbation. All through my perception of the game, out of the blue the ball showed up at my feet. Nathan was hurrying towards me. We as a whole comprehended what he was out to do. He had that look all over like a tiger going to bring down his prey. Passing the ball was impossible, it was a round of knockouts, and it was everyman for himself. There were two alternatives accessible to me, either to be clasped down and tumble to the ground, or move out the route when he rushed at me. I felt like a gazelle being run at by a lion. It was a brief instant choice, so I chose to kick the ball to one side and turn around to one side when he jumped at me. He tumbled to the ground as though he had been shot in the back. The whole play area remained altogether and complete shock. Nathan was a seething bull. He went on his knees and tilted his head up with a smoldering look, just as he was going to kill somebody. I cautioned him and said â€Å"No battling, battling no good† anyway I realized he was going to fail to acknowledge. He thundered like a lion and charged at me like a widespread bull. As Nathan attempted to rugby tackle me I held onto him in a wrestling hold and kneed him in the face constantly. Luckily, for Nathan we were disconnected by Mr Chiriste, the school guardian. All the resentment Nathan had caused me before, all the fierceness, all the annoyed, notwithstanding me being hollered at until I almost cried was discharged in those couple of moments. Fortunately I didn't get into a lot of difficulty in spite of the reality I caused Nathan to drain. Most of the youngsters in the play area supported me up by saying Nathan began the battle and I battled in self-protection. The possibility of me losing my temper was as likely as Mike Tyson not losing his in the wake of being smacked in the face. Indeed, even at the young age of eight, I never lost my temper except if exceedingly incited. It is practically difficult to envision the stuff for such a peaceful multi year old to arrive at that purpose of outrage. On that specific Wednesday, that degree of outrage was brought about by Nathan Tyler, and he took care of his activities. Thinking back on my first battle, I think it is very clever why I turned out to be so stained over such a minor occurrence. On the off chance that I was in Nathan’s circumstance I would have in all likelihood liked to accuse the new kid, as opposed to confront a beast like Mrs Fassal. In any case, the idea of multi year olds making each other drain is very terrifying. Instructions to refer to My first battle, Papers

Public Relation(Marketing) Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Open Relation(Marketing) - Essay Example The consistently reducing turn-out in races for the European Parliament - it fell in everything except three part states during the ongoing Euro races - is only one persuasive articulation of mainstream irritation and lack of concern towards the EU (Clegg, 2003, p.5). The focal point of the current article is the impression of British residents of 50 of European Union and related foundations. The across the nation EU explore, directed in summer 2006, contained 1,347 people of British citizenship, 45% of whom were individuals more than 50 (Eurobarometer 65). As the report holds, the British are known for their ordinary answers 'I couldn't care less' and 'I don't have a clue', however residents more than 50 have explicit position. For example, when gotten some information about their sentiment concerning the EU participation, 50 percent of respondents addressed 'It is a smart thought', 16 percent thought that it was inadmissible, while there were 34 percent, who were only uninformed of current policy centered issues. With respect to seniors, the colossal level of individuals more than 50 (30 percent) see EU enrollment as issue and don't bolster it, and just 23 percent considered the thought sound and sensible. All things considered, there are 47% of impassive (or inadequately educated) residents, most of who are matured more than 65 and who are presently not capable of foll owing all news communicates. In any case, the review proposes that the circumstance has improved contrasting with 46-percent ignorance in summer 2005 (Eurobarometer 63). Then again, the related elements among seniors is more slow - while in 2005, the level of uninterested or ignorant residents matured more than 50 was 49%, the ongoing examination shows just 2-percent decline. This reality is clear and reasonable: the review was taken an interest by different age gatherings and social classes - from understudies to businessmen, and the characteristic increment of training level is actually what the examination has estimated. Then again, residents more than 50 are less inspired as far as political requests, so they are probably going to remain either clueless or uninterested. The specific level of ignorant residents is 12 percent: What is additionally reassuring to note is that solitary 125 of the UK survey say that they know nothing at about the European Union contrasted and 18 percent a year back. There is an invite decrease in the negative part of the UK information. A year prior, 28% of UK residents said they never searched for data on the EU. It has now decreased somewhat, yet essentially, to 23% (Eurobarometer 65, p.3). Then again, White et al features that this positive advance forward is being finished by the populace under 45, while the improvement of cognizance in residents more than 50 has been in condition of stagnation for a long time. For example, just 8 percent of British seniors made endeavors to discover progressively broad data about the EU (White, 2006), and their number has appreciated just 1,5 percent expansion in the course of the most recent year. Prior research (Lafferty, 2004) presents certain intended interest group for intellectual impact, and classified the UK populace by age and sexual orientation. Female understudies from 23 to 28 turned out the most keen and touchy as far as ongoing data crusades, run by the EU. Individuals more than 50 are viewed as neither compelling (for example they are not capable and not spurred to convince their environmental factors) not delicate to new data. Lafferty shows that the run of the mill profile of a UK resident more than 50 is following: an individual intrigued by residential news and worried about legislative

The Macroeconomic Forces And Stock Prices Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

The study examines the influence of a selective set of macroeconomic forces on stock market prices in Bangladesh. The Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Index (DSI) is used to represent the prices in the stock market while deposit interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index (CPI), crude oil prices and broad money supply (M2) are selected to represent the macroeconomic variables affecting the stock prices. Using monthly data from 1992m1-2011m6, several time-series techniques were used which include Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Variance Decompositions (VDC). Cointegration analysis, along with the VECM, suggests that interest rates, crude oil prices and money supply are negatively related to stock prices, exchange rates are positively related to stock prices, and CPI is insignificant in influencing the stock prices, in the long-run. Both the IRF and VDC suggest that shocks to macroeconomic variables explain a small proportion of the forecast variance error of the DSI, but these effects persist for a long period. Stock markets, where shares and bonds are traded and issued through exchanges and over-the-counter markets, form an integral part of the financial markets and are important for the development of an economy. Stock markets contribute to the economy by providing businesses with access to capital and investors with opportunities for capital gains. Research has shown that stock market development contributes significantly to the economic growth of a country (Levine and Zervos, 1996)  [1]  . Since stock market prices are subject to fluctuations, it is essential to determine the forces influencing the stock prices for efficient functioning and development of the stock market and country. There are many reasons for there to be an interest to determine the forces influencing the stock prices. Firstly, this may interest investors, so they can forecast stock prices accurately to make apt decisions regarding their stock portfolio for maximum gains. Secondly, businesses may find this useful; as stock price is an indication of the financial health of the companies, businesses may be interested to determine the future stock prices as it will allow them to assess their ability to issue bonds or obtain financing in the future. Thirdly, policymakers and economists may find this useful, so they can predict stock prices as prices of stocks reflect changes in economic activity in the long run (Cheung and Lai, 1999). Stock prices are expected discounted dividends, i.e. discounted value of future cash flows derived f rom a stock. Theoretically, stock prices are modelled as: where P refers to the stock price, CF refers to the cash flows derived from a stock and R refers to the discount rate. Hence, any forces influencing the discount rates, R, or expected future cash flows derived from a stock, CF, will affect the stock prices. However, theoretical models do not provide an identity of these exogenous economic forces (Bodhurta et al., 1989), i.e. do not identify the economic forces influencing the stock prices. Macroeconomic variables are potential candidates for these forces because macroeconomic changes simultaneously affect many firms cash flows and may influence the risk-adjusted discount rate (Shiller, 1981; Leroy and Porter, 1981; Flannery and Protopapadakis, 2002), or simply, discount rate. The purpose of the dissertation will be to try to find a long-term relationship between macroeconomic forces and stock prices for an emerging stock market in a less developed country. The dissertat ion will focus on an emerging market because the behaviour of stock prices in these countries is not tied to economic fundamentals (Gunasekarage et al., 2004) and, therefore, makes it difficult to predict the forces affecting the stock prices. Moreover, studies on emerging markets have shown that returns and risks in these markets are higher relative to those in stock markets in developed countries (Harvey, 1995a). It will be interesting to determine what factors cause these higher risks and returns and study the relationship between macroeconomic forces and stock prices in emerging stock markets. The dissertation will study the relationship between a selective set of macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Bangladesh stock market. The Bangladesh stock market is an established capital market and deemed as the next Asian success story by JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch (Bloomberg, 1997); its stocks have performed well in recent years and prices gained nearly 5 0% over one year in 2010 (2nd highest in the world after Sri Lanka)  [2]  . However, the stock market is still developing and the analysis made in this study can, therefore, be used to shed light on other emerging stock markets. For the purpose of the study, the stocks from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the primary stock market of Bangladesh, will be considered as it covers majority of the stocks in the country and will allow a more comprehensive analysis. The DSE uses three share price indices Dhaka All-Share Price Index (DSI), Dhaka General Price (DGEN) Index, and DSE-20  [3]  . The DSI will be used as a proxy for stock prices for the study as it covers all the stocks including Z-category shares. The study will cover the last two decades since the DSE became very active during this period due to developments in the capital markets of Bangladesh, such as exemption of tax dividends on stock market investments to increase stock trades, off-loading of shares of governmen t-owned companies, allowing investment of black money  [4]  into the capital market, etc. The next section reviews the existing literature on the topic and discusses the methodologies used in the papers. Section 3 describes the macroeconomic variables used in the study along with their hypothesized relationship with the stock prices. Section 4 discusses the sources from which the data were collected and provides descriptive statistics of the data. Section 5 explains the econometric model and methodologies used in the study. Section 6 provides the empirical results with interpretations. Section 7 concludes the paper and offers further remarks. Literature Review Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) (CRR) was one of the pioneer papers that tried to identify the macroeconomic variables that influenced stock returns and determined this relationship for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). They used a regression framework to test whether macroeconomic innovations such as monthly growth in industrial production, expected inflation and unexpected inflation  [5]  , and an interest rate spread variable have systematic influences on stock market returns. To this end, they estimated a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model of lagged stock market returns and used the residuals of the macroeconomic variables as the unanticipated innovations in the macroeconomic factors. They found that industrial production, changes in the risk premium, term structure, unexpected inflation and changes in anticipated inflation were significant in explaining expected stock returns in the NYSE. They also used value-weighted NYSE index as a macroeconomic variable, and found that it h as an insignificant influence on expected returns. Poon and Taylor (1991) used the dataset for the London stock market and the same macroeconomic variables as CRR and found that no significant relationship exists between stock returns and the macroeconomic variables. Diacogiannis (1986) and Cheng (1995), similarly, determined that there is no conclusive result regarding the relationship of relevant macroeconomic variables with the capital market of the U.K. Gà ¼nsel and Çukur (2007), using the same variables as CRR, looked into different industries in the U.K. and found that macroeconomic factors have a significant effect in the U.K. stock exchange market; however, each factor affect different industry in different manner. Further work on the topic has extended the analysis by incorporating different framework/setting and conducted the study using different econometric methods. Bodhurta et al. (1989) undertook an analysis for seven major industrial countries United State s, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada and Australia. They chose the same explanatory variables as CRR, and to incorporate an international setting, introduced deviations from Purchasing Power Parity, typified as real exchange rate changes, and interest rate parity. They were able to demonstrate that several of the international analogs of the CRR domestic variables stock index returns, industrial production, bond returns, unanticipated inflation and oil prices are significant in explaining the average stock returns in the cross-section sample. Mukherjee and Naka (1995) used a different methodology to determine the relationship between macroeconomic forces and stock returns. They employed Johansens (1991) Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine whether relevant macroeconomic variables and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) index were cointegrated for the period 1971-1990. They found that a cointegrating relationship exists and that stock prices contributed to the relation. The relationships between stock index and exchange rates, inflation, money supply, and industrial production were as hypothesized and the same as existing literature. However, the results for the interest rates were mixed. The relation between the TSE and long-term government bond rate (LGB) was negative, but positive between the TSE and call money rate; they state that this may be because the LGB is a better proxy for risk-free rate in the basic stock pricing model. Nasseh and Strauss (2000) used Johansens cointegration procedure and variance decompositions method for 1962-1995 for six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Switzerland and the U.K, and found support for the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates, consumer prices, real industrial production, business surveys of manufacturing orders, and International (German) movements in stock prices. There have only been a few studies f ocused on the emerging markets in less developed countries. Wongbangpo and Sharma (2004) studied the stock markets of the five ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and Thailand, and their relationship with select macroeconomic variables. They found that in the long-run, the stock prices were positively related to growth in output, and negatively to the aggregate price level. A negative long-run relationship between stock prices and interest rates was observed in Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. High inflation in Indonesia and Philippines was found to influence the long-run negative relation between stock prices and the money supply, while the money growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand was found to be responsible for the positive effect on their stock markets. Lastly, the exchange rate variable was positively related to stock prices in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines, which can be explained by the high competition in the world exporting m arket. Mookerjee and Yu (1997) and Maysami and Koh (2000) studied the Singapore stock market and found that changes in Singapores stock market levels form a cointegrating relationship with changes in price levels, money supply, short- and long-term interest rates. Gunasekarage et al. (2004) examined the long-run relationship between macroeconomic factors and all-share price index from 1985-2001 for the Colombo Stock Exchange and found that the consumer price index and treasury bill rate coefficients are significant and negative, money supply coefficient is significant and positive, but exchange rate had no influence on share price indices. Frimpong (2009) conducted a study on Ghana for the period 1990-2006 and found that exchange rates are positively related to the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Share index (GSE), and inflation and money supply are negatively related to the GSE. Rahman and Moazzem (2011) attempted to identify the causal relationship between changes in the DSE stock pri ces and the regulatory decisions taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The results suggested that market price fluctuations were positively and significantly influenced by these decisions, a result that was opposite of what was expected. However, the methodology suffers from endogeneity as the number of decisions taken may be due to high price indices in the given month. Macroeconomic Forces and the DSI: Hypothesized Relations This section covers the macroeconomic variables chosen for the study and their hypothesized relationships with the DSI. The variables chosen were based on financial theory and established literature deposit interest rates (IR), exchange rate (EXR), consumer price index (CPI), crude oil prices (OP) and broad money supply (M2)  [6]  . The intuition behind the relationship between deposit interest rates and stock prices forms the basis for the hypothesized negative relationship between the variables. Interest rates represent the opportunity cost for investors in the equity markets (Asprem, 1989). An increase in the interest rates results in high opportunity cost of holding cash and leads investors to substitute between stocks and other interest-bearing securities. Moreover, the interest rates, through their effect on the risk-free rate, will lead to an increase in the discount rate (Mukherjee and Naka, 1995). Thus, stock prices are expected to fall and vice versa. Solnik (1 987), Soenen and Hennigar (1988) and Ma and Kao (1990), among others, indicate that exchange rates play a significant role in affecting the performance of a stock market. For this study, a positive relation is hypothesized between exchange rate (against the U.S. dollar)  [7]  and stock prices based on the classic theory of Hume (1752). As goods in the Bangladesh economy become relatively more expensive in the international market due to an appreciation of the Bangladeshi Taka (falling exchange rate) against the U.S. dollar, demand for exports reduce and, at the same time, demand for imports increase, thus leading to lower Taka-denominated cash flows into the Bangladeshi companies and hence, lowering stock prices. This is evident from the theoretical model of stock valuation. The opposite should hold when the Bangladeshi Taka depreciates against the U.S. Dollar. The relation between consumer price index and stock returns has been generally theorized to be negative (Fama and Sc hwert, 1977). A decrease in consumer price index decreases the nominal risk-free rate and lowers the discount rate in the stock valuation model, leading to higher stock prices. Mukherjee and Naka (1995) suggest that the effect of a lower discount rate would be neutralized if cash flows decrease with the CPI. DeFina (1991), however, documents that cash flows do not decrease at the same rate as inflation or CPI, and, hence, it is expected that the fall in discount rate will lead to higher stock prices. It must be noted though, that prices, in general, may be subject to greater fluctuations in the developing countries, which may render the relationship insignificant. Thus, a negative or insignificant relationship is expected between CPI and stock prices. Crude oil prices are used in this study following Hassan and Hashim (2010). Oil prices serve as an input for production in sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing. Changes to these prices are likely to affect the economic act ivities taking place in the country. A negative relationship is hypothesized between oil prices and stock prices since higher oil prices may lead to a decrease in production and thereby lower cash inflows and stock prices. The opposite relationship is expected to hold as well. It should be noted that crude oil price is an external factor the objective is to see whether international factors play a role in the stock markets of Bangladesh. The relationship between money supply and stock prices is not straightforward. It has been widely tested because changes in money supply have important direct effects on stock prices via portfolio changes, and indirect effects via its effects on real activity variables (Mookerjee and Yu, 1987). As money growth rate is likely to be positively related to inflation, it will increase the discount rate and, hence, lower stock prices. However, prices are constant in this study; hence, money supply may affect stock prices through other mechanisms. Sell in (2001) argues that a positive money supply shock will alter expectations about future monetary policy and lead people to anticipate tightening monetary policy in the future. The subsequent increase in bidding for bonds will drive up the current rate of interest. As the interest rate goes up, the discount rates go up as well, and the present value of future earnings decline, leading to decline in stock prices. The increase in money supply may also lead to a boost in companies cash flows resulting from the increased money supply (Mukherjee and Naka, 1995; Chaudhuri and Smiles, 2004), known as corporate earnings effect, which is likely to increase stock prices. For this study, a negative relationship is expected between money supply and stock prices since prices and interest rates are subject to greater fluctuations in developing countries. Data 4.1 Data Sources For the purpose of this paper, monthly data has been collected for the period January 1992 to June 2011. The period was chosen purposefully since the Bangladesh economy has undergone major changes during this period, such as trade liberalisation in the 1990s, stock market crash in 1996, and again in 2010-2011, capital market developments in the 2000s, etc., and it will be interesting to analyse the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock index during this period. Firstly, the monthly Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share index data is obtained from the Dhaka Stock Exchange and its website  [8]  . Next, five macroeconomic variables have been chosen to determine their relationships with the stock prices. These include the interest rate (deposit rate), the exchange rate (domestic currency for US dollar), consumer price index (with a base year of 2005) as a measure of inflation, per barrel price of crude oil in U.S. Dollar, and broad money supply. Oil price is taken to serve as a proxy for international risk factors and external supply side shocks  [9]  . Data on consumer price index, exchange rate, deposit interest rates and crude oil prices were collected from the International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund. Data on broad money was collected from the Monthly Trends publications of the Bangladesh Bank. Other variables were also considered for the study initially, such as call money rate and industrial production index, but due to unreliability and unavailability of data, they had to be excluded from the study. Data Statistics This sub-section provides descriptive statistics and time-plots (attached in Figure A-1a:f in the Appendix) for the data under study. The purpose is to observe the trends that the variables have displayed over the period and analyse the changes that have taken place. For the sake of the study, all the variables (except interest rates  [10]  ) have been converted into natural logarithms  [11]  . The following table gives a summary of the descriptive statistics of the variables: Table 4.: Descriptive Statistics of Variables January 1992 to June 2011 Variable Summary Statistics Logged Variables (except IR) DSI IR ER CPI OP Mean 6.99 8.22 3.98 4.42 3.44 St. Dev. 0.76 1.21 0.22 0.32 0.65 Maximum 8.87 11.39 4.30 5.05 4.89 Minimum 5.66 5.77 3.66 3.93 2.34 Note: DSI is Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Index, IR is deposit interest rate, ER is exchange rate, CPI is consumer price index , OP is oil prices and M2 is broad money. All the variables (except interest rates) are in natural logarithms Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange, Bangladesh Bank and International Financial Statistics The table above and the time plot in Figure A-1a show that in the span of 1992M1-2011M6, the DSI has registered high fluctuations in levels. Figure A-1a shows that the DSI has registered an upward trend over the period under consideration. The DSI series shows spikes in 1996 and 2010, both were due to bubbles  [12]  in the stocks. The deposit interest rates were fairly stable in the period under consideration, with low standard deviation in levels, as seen in Table 4.1 and Figure A-1b. The deposit interest rates were lower during the periods of the stock price crashes, as banks were forced then to lower the interest rates that they pay out on deposits to consumers. The exchange rate of Bangladeshi Taka against the U.S. Dollar has been on an upward trend for the entire period, as seen in Figure A-1c. The Bangladesh economy is highly reliant on imports for luxury products and raw materials. Since these transactions are conducted in U.S. Dollars, the exchange rate of the Bangladeshi Taka against the U.S. dollar has been rising. However, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Bangladeshi Taka has ceased since the global financial crisis in 2006-2007, as transactions in U.S. Dollar have reduced. The consumer price index, which is taken to account for inflation  [13]  , has risen steadily over the entire period, with higher increase in recent periods, as shown in Figure A-1d. This is due to high food prices in recent years  [14]  . The crude oil prices data in Figure A-1e show that the prices have remained mostly stable until 2006. Since then, crude oil prices have seen major fluctuations with record-high prices during the recent global financial crisis. The prices were lower in 2008, affected by easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. A stronger US dollar in the international market and a likely decline in European demand are also among the causes of the decline. The broad money supply data in Figure A-1f show that M2 has remained stable except for two shocks in 1996 and 2006. However, the overall trend in the broad money data has been upward. Econometric Methodology The purpose of the research is to determine if a long-run relationship exists between the DSI and macroeconomic factors for Bangladesh. The econometric model to be used for the paper is as follows: where the variables are as they have already been defined, and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt is the error term in the model. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢0 represents the constant term in the model and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²2, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²3, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²4 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²5 represent long-run parameters. Time-series econometrics requires an analysis of the time-series properties and paths of the economic variables in a regression equation before estimation in order to assess if a long-run relationship can be estimated for the model. A long-run relationship exists if the variables are non-stationary in levels and stationary in first differences. More specifically, it should be ensured that the variables in the study are integrated of order d, where dÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¥1, i.e., they should be stationary in differenced forms, denoted as I(d). To test for stationarity, i.e. no unit root, in the variables, two tests are used the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. ADF estimates the following equation: where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ´ refers to the existence of a trend and ÃÆ' Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ , to presence of unit root. The ADF test is carried out for two models with constant and trend, and constant with no trend (ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ´=0). The lag of dependent variable is included to account for autocorrelation. For the Phillips-Perron unit root tests, however ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ³j=0, and the PP test incorporates an automatic correction to the test on ÃÆ' Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ =0 to allow for autocorrelated residuals. The PP test estimates: where , and the second term is the Newey-West estimator of the error variance which adjusts the statistics for the possibility of autocorrelated error. The optimum lag length to be used in ADF tests are decided using the Schwert maximum lag length, sequential t-test procedure, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC). The lower the value of the criterion, the better the fit for the unit root tests. When the sample is large, say T 250, it is better to rely on SBIC. However, if the sample contains observations below T 250, AIC is a better fit and used to account for the optimal lag length. After testing the variables for unit root, the next step entails determining if cointegration exists among the variables. Engle and Granger (1987) suggest that a long-term equilibrium relation between stock prices and macroeconomic factors can be determined using cointegration analysis. If two or more series individually have unit root series, but some linear combination  of them has a stationary process, then the series is said to be cointegrated. The Johansen (1991) method is an extension of Engle and Granger procedure, all owing for more than one cointegrating equation and it this procedure which will be undertaken. Suppose for a multivariate case, where Yt is a vector of k variables, and i 1,2 ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€¹Ã…“i is k x k. This can be manipulated and written as: where ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  Yt = Yt Yt-1, and ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ k = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€¹Ã…“1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€¹Ã…“2 Ik. If the rank of ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ k is zero, then there are no cointegrating vectors. In the presence of cointegration, ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ k has rank r ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤ k 1, and then, ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ k = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±ÃƒÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ², where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± is k x r and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ² is r x k. Then, this can be written as: where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ² is the cointegrating matrix, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²Yt represents the r linear combination and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± represents the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium relationship. In o rder to perform Johansen tests, we need to compute the k eigenvalues of , which is the estimate of ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ k. It is assumed that is the squared canonical relationship ordered from the largest to the smallest. If there are r cointegrating relationships, then log(1 + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »j) = 0 for j=r+1,ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¦,k. Test for H0 : r ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤ r0 versus HA : r r0, i.e. under the null, the number of cointegrating vector is at most r0, under the alternative, it is larger than r0. This is called a Trace test. The maximum eigenvalue test is also conducted to test for the number of cointegrating relationships. Under the maximum eigenvalue test, H0 : r ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤ r0 versus HA : r = r0 + 1, i.e. under the null, the number of cointegrating vector is at most r0, under the alternative, it is equal to r0 + 1. If at least one cointegrating relationship exists among the variables, a causal relationship among them can be determined by estimating the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In this study, the short-run VECM equation with a lag length p is modeled as: where the variables are I(1) and as previously defined, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±1, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±2, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±3, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±4, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±5 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±6 represent short-run elasticities, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt-1 is the error correction term, with its coefficient ÃÆ' Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  , which conveys the long-run information contained in the data and denotes the speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium after a shock to the system. The VECM builds on cointegration by incorporating error correction terms that account for short-run dynamics, and, if a long-run equilibrium condition is valid and cointegration exists, it explains short-run fluctuations (as represented by the ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±1, ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¦. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ±6) in the dependent variable (Frimpong, 2009). The optimal num ber of lags is determined by lag length in VAR using AIC. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Variance Decompositions (VDC) will be constructed after estimating the VECM. IRF is a useful tool for characterizing the dynamic responses implied by estimated VECMs. Consider a first-order VAR for the n-vector yt: where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¼ is the vector of intercepts and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt ~ IN (0,). The IRF of a shock to variable, for instance, IR on variable DSI after k periods as: where ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µIR,t is the vector ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µt excluding the IR element. The IRF measures the effect of a shock of 1 unit occurring at period t-k, on variable DSI, k periods later, assuming there are no other shocks at period t-k, or in the other intervening periods (t-k+1,ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¦t). The IRF shows impulse responses of the select variable in the VECM system in regards to the time paths of the variables own error shock against the error shocks to other variables in the system. Since the innovations of error terms are likely to be correlated, a mechanism of Impulse Response via the Generalized Impulse Response method is implemented, to ensure orthogonalization of the innovations. Unlike other mechanisms of orthogonalization of innovations where the interpretation of specific impulses rests on the ordering of variables within the VAR system, the Generalized Impulse Response has no such concern on the VAR ordering. The VDC is implemented to show the percentage of the movement of the t-step ahead forecast error variance of the select variable in the VECM system that is attributed to its own error shock in contrast to error shocks to other variables in the system (Gunasekarage, 2004). Empirical Results 6.1 Results of Unit Root Tests It is essential to confirm the order of integration of all the variables before the model is estimated and tested for cointegration. The Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests are employed to test for unit roots and the results are reported in Table 6.1. The tests were conducted for all the variables with both a constant and a time trend, with lags for the ADF tests selected as per the Akaike Information Criterion, unless otherwise stated. The lags were also tested for significance prior to their results being reported. For the PP test, Bandwidth or the lag truncation parameter was chosen using the estimation method of Bartlett kernel. The null hypothesis for the ADF and PP tests is that the selected variable has a unit root. When the test statistic for a variable was greater than the critical value for the test, the null of unit root was rejected and vice versa. Table 6.: Results of Unit Root Tests Variable Augmented Dickey Fuller Phillips Perron Constant Trend and Constant Constant Trend and Constant Level DSI -0.95 (1) -2.08 (1) -0.92 (5) IR -2.26 (1) -2.73 (1) -2.76 (8) ER -0.58 (10) -2.53 (10) -0.31 (2) CPI 2.01 (4) -1.73 (4) 1.68 (9) OP -0.67 (1) -2.94 (1) -0.61 (4) M2 -3.65 (5) 0.21 (5) 1.18 (1) First Differences ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  DSI -12.83 (0)*** -12.81 (0)*** -12.85 (3)*** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  IR -5.78 (2)*** -6.03 (2)*** -14.43 (8)*** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  ER -4.07 (7)*** -4.06 (7)*** -13.00 (5)*** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  CPI -4.39 (10)*** -4.69 (10)*** -10.30 (16)*** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  OP -11.84 (0)*** -11.84 (0)*** -11.82 (1)*** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  M2 -7.79 (5)*** -11.66 (4)*** -26.04 (1)*** The ADF and PP critical values for t-statistics at 1% and 5% significance levels for th e model with the constant are -3.46 and -2.88 respectively; the model including both the trend and constant are -4.00 and -3.43 respectively ***, ** and * denote the rejection of unit root/non-stationarity for the ADF and PP tests at 1%, 5% and 10% significance levels respectively The numbers in parentheses for the ADF tests correspond to the optimum lag length, as per Akaike Information Criterion, unless otherwise stated The numbers in parentheses for the PP tests correspond to the Bandwidth, based on Newey-West using Bartlett Kernel for PP MacKinnon (1996) critical values are used for ADF and PP tests. The variables show non-stationarity in levels and stationarity in first differences, for both the ADF and PP tests. The lags for interest rates in levels under the ADF test estimated using the AIC were insignificant with a constant and trend at 5% significance level, hence, the lags were changed until they were significant and then the appropriate test statistic repor ted. The lags for the first differences of the exchange rates data under the ADF test estimated using the AIC were insignificant with a constant and trend at 10% significance level. Similar to the tests for interest rates, the lags were then modified until they showed significance. As can be observed from Table 6.1 above, all the variables are non-stationary in levels, and stationary in first differences, a necessary pre-condition for cointegration analysis. 6.2 Results of Optimum Lag Length Tests In choosing the specification of the cointegration model, it is necessary to specify the number of lags in the autoregressive specification (Chaudhuri and Smiles, 2004). For this purpose, the Likelihood Ratio, Final Prediction Error, Akaike, Schwarz and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion were used to determine the appropriate lag length. The AIC, SIC and HQIC are chosen based on lowest values over the lags considered (allowed for a maximum ten lags in this case). The Akaike criterion suggests that a lag of five is optimal, whereas the Schwarz criterion indicates a lag of one. Since the number of observations considered in the study is below 250, the AIC is a better fit for the model. In addition, overestimating the order of the VAR is a bigger mistake than underestimating it and, hence, it is better to rely on AIC. Table 6.: VECM Lag Order Selection Criteria Lag LR FPE AIC SIC HQIC 0 4.6-9 -2.16 -2.07 -2.12 1 4374.6 2.1-17 -21.37 - 20.73* -21.11 2 123.86 1.7-17 -21.60 -20.41 -21.12* 3 66.87 1.7-17 -21.58 -19.84 -20.88 4 74.43 1.7-17 -21.59 -19.30 -20.67 5 86.98 1.6-17* -21.66* -18.82 -20.51 6 57.24 1.7-17 -21.59 -18.21 -20.22 7 75.44 1.7-17 -21.60 -17.68 -20.02 8 61.34* 1.8-17 -21.56 -17.08 -19.75 9 38.71 2.2-17 -21.41 -16.38 -19.38 10 44.92 2.5-17 -21.29 -15.71 -19.04 *indicates lag order selected by the criterion 6.3 Results of Johansen Cointegration Tests Table 6.3 shows the results for the Johansen Cointegration test performed to investigate the long-run relationships of the variables in the model. However, the number of cointegrating vectors generated by the Johansen test may be sensitive to the lag length. Hence, the optimum lag length estimated in the previous section via AIC (five) will be used to determine the number of cointegrating relations. Table 6.: Results for Johansen Cointegration Test No. of CE(s) [H0] ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »max Statistic 95% Critical Value [Max.] 99% Critical Value [Max.] ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »trace Statistic 95% Critical Value [Trace] 99% Critical Value [Trace] r=0 41.58 39.37 45.10 104.51 94.15 103.18 rÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤1 32.59 33.46 38.77 62.93* 68.52 76.07 rÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤2 14.57 27.07 32.24 30.35 47.21 54.46 rÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤3 10.35 20.97 25.52 15.78 29.68 35.65 rÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤4 5.36 14.07 18.63 5.42 15.41 20.04 rÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤5 0.06 3.76 6.65 0.06 3.76 6.65 *denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 5% and 1% significance level r denotes the number of cointegrating relationships CE refers to cointegrating equations The first column in Table 6.3 shows the null hypothesis assumed for the Maximum Eigenvalue and Trace Tests. The value of ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »trace under the null of r = 0 (no cointegration) is 104.51, which is greater than 94.15, the 5% critical value reported from Osterwald-Lenum (1992), so the null of no cointegration can be rejected in favour of one cointegrating equation. For r ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤ 1, the ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »trace measure is less than the critical value at 1% and 5% significance levels, which forms the basis for accepting the null hypothesis of at least one cointegrating vector. An alternative measure th at is used to determine the number of cointegrating vectors is ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »max. The ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »max shows that at the 5% significance level, the null hypothesis of no cointegrating vector is rejected since the value of 41.58 is greater than 39.37. However, similar to the ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »trace statistic, for r ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ °Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¤ 1 and other values of r, the ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »max measure is less than the critical value at 5% significance level. Therefore, it can be assumed that there is at least one cointegrating vector. According to both ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »trace and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ »max statistics, it can be confirmed that there is at least one long-run equilibrium relationship between the Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Index and macroeconomic variables. Lags of six and seven were considered to check for robustness; they also indicated one cointegrating relationship. 6.4 Results of Long-Run Cointegration Model Table 6.4 shows the long-run cointegrating model. The long-run relationships were as hypothesized in the study and these are reported below: Table 6.: Long Run Cointegrating Model Regressor Coefficient Std. Error t-statistics Constant -1.39 Interest Rate -0.12 0.07 -1.79* Exchange Rate 5.26 1.33 3.94*** Consumer Price Index 3.01 2.26 1.33 Crude Oil Prices -0.69 0.21 -3.28*** Broad Money Supply -2.66 1.19 -2.23** ***, ** and * denote significance of variables at the 1%, 5% and 10% significance levels. Note: Dependent Variable DSI According to the table, the actual long-run relationship can be represented by: DSI = -0.12IR + 5.26ER + 3.01CPI 0.69OP -2.66M2 In the long-run, deposit interest rates and the DSI are significantly and negatively related. This was expected as high deposit interest rates mean that rational investors would be less interested to invest in risky assets in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. Consequently, this will lower the stock prices and hence, the DSI. The relationship was found to be significant at 10% level in the long-run. The finding is consistent with the literature, though early studies dealt primarily with Treasury-bill (short -term) rate and government bond rate (long-term)  [15]  . Mukherjee and Naka (1995), Maysami and Koh (2000), and Bulmash and Trivoli (1991) found a positive relation between the short-term interest rates and stock market prices, and a negative relationship between long-term interest rates and stock prices. The relationship between deposit interest rates and stock prices in the study are, therefore, consistent with the results of the long-term interest rates. The exchange rate and the DSI are significantly and positively related in the long-run. This was also hypothesized since increasing exchange rates (Taka depreciation against the U.S. Dollar) result in money inflows, and, consequently higher investment in the stocks. A higher investment in the Dhaka Stock Exchange would lead to higher prices for the stocks and higher DSI. Mukherjee and Naka (1995) and Brown and Otsuki (1990) also report the same relation for the Japanese stock market. This is in contrast to Maysami and Koh (2000) and Gunasekarage (2004). Maysami and Koh (2000) found that the Singapore Dollar exchange rate (against the U.S. Dollar) and the Singapore stock market are negatively related. They state that an appreciation of the Singaporean Dollar lowers imported inputs and allows the exporters in the country to be more competitive internationally. This is received as favourable news for the Singapore stock markets and, hence, positive stock returns are generated as a result. Gunasekarage (2004) found that exchange rates have no significant relationship with the Colombo stock prices. This was due to limited participation by the foreign investors. It was hypothesized that the relationship between CPI and the DSI in the long-run will be either negative or insignificant due to large price changes. However, long-run cointegrating model shows that the relationship between CPI and stock prices is positive; a possible reason for the positive relationship is that high prices of essentials might have led to an increase in the stock prices. The relationship, though, was insignificant, which confirms that large price changes in Bangladesh affect the theorized relationship. Price fluctuations in developing countries are more prevalent due to lower regulations, competition, etc. and explain why the relationship was found insignificant. The result found here is not consistent with early evidence in the literature Lintner (1973), Oudet (1973), Bodie (1976), Nelson (1976), Mukherjee and Naka (1995) and Gunasekerage (2004) found a negative relationship between CPI and stock prices. The relationship between crude oil prices and the DSI was found to be negative in the long-run. Chen et al. (1986) found an insignificant relationship between oil prices and the NYSE. Hassan and Hisham (2010) found a negative relationship between crude oil prices and the Jordan Stock Exchange. However, it has been recently seen that crude oil prices and stock prices are positively related, ignoring the theorized relationship. For e.g., the Standard Poors (SP) 500 Index and the oil prices from 1998-2008 have demonstrated a positive relationship with each other with a correlation of 0.55 and the correlation has increased to 0.86 since 2008 (Smirnov, 2012). However, for the DSI, the relationship was negative with oil prices and consistent with the hypothesis. The relationship between money supply and stock prices was found to be negative and significant at 5% level in the long-run. As money supply is increased, it leads people to expect a tightening monetary policy in the future and hence, a higher interest and discount rate, and lower stock prices. This is consistent with Frimpong (2009), who similarly found a negative relationship between the Ghana stock prices and money supply. However, most of the studies in the literature have found a positive relationship between stock prices and money supply, such as Bulmash and Trivoli (1991), Mukherjee and Naka (1995) and Gunesekarag e (2004). To check for robustness, lags of six and seven were considered. All the variables reported the same relationship with the stock prices at six lags; however, oil prices and money supply were insignificant in explaining stock price changes. Lags of seven rendered the relationship between oil and stock prices significant, but the relationship between money supply and stock prices remained insignificant. This shows that money supply and oil prices are sensitive to lag lengths and the results for these variables are not robust. 6.5 Results of Short-Run Cointegration Model Table 6.5 below reports the short-run results of the Vector Error Correction Model. The sign and magnitude of the error correction coefficient (speed adjustment term) indicates the direction and speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium path. A negative error correction coefficient implies that the models deviation from the long-run relation, in the absence of variation in the independent variables, is corrected by changes in the dependent variable. This confirms the existence of a long-run relationship. The size of the coefficient of the error correction term in this study implies that about 5.3% of the disequilibrium in the long-run model is corrected every month. The error term coefficient was significant at the 5% level. The short-run results indicate that DSI and interest rates positively affect the DSI at the first lag; the results from the latter lags are insignificant. CPI positively affects the stock prices at the third lag, but it was insignificant for other lags. Exchange rates, oil prices and money supply mostly affect the DSI negatively, but these variables are also statistically insignificant at most lags. Other lags were also considered for robustness and better results. Lags of four and seven revealed a negative sign for the error correction term but it was not significant. The other variables, similarly, did not result in more significant or robust estimates. Due to statistical insignificance of the variables, Impulse Response Function is employed to explain the short-run results better. Table 6.: Vector Error Correction Model Error Correction: Coefficient Standard Error t-statistics Speed of Adjustment -0.053 0.022 -2.42** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  DSIt-1 0.172 0.071 2.44** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  DSIt-2 -0.012 0.071 -0.17 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  DSIt-3 0.110 0.071 1.55 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  DSIt-4 -0.002 0.072 -0.02 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  IRt-1 -0.025 0.024 -1.03 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  IRt-2 0.028 0.024 1.15 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  IRt-3 -0.023 0.025 -0.92 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  IRt-4 0.017 0.025 0.65 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  ERt-1 -0.968 0.924 -1.05 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  ERt-2 0.093 0.935 0.10 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  ERt-3 -0.576 0.937 -0.61 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  ERt-4 -0.708 0.958 -0.74 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  CPIt-1 -0.172 0.883 -0.20 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  CPIt-2 0.247 0.895 0.28 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  CPIt-3 1.803 0.903 2.00** ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  CPIt-4 -0.020 0.889 -0.02 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  OPt-1 0.090 0.087 1.04 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  OPt-2 0.074 0.08 8 0.84 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  OPt-3 -0.056 0.088 -0.62 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  OPt-4 -0.023 0.087 -0.26 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  M2t-1 -0.186 0.282 -0.66 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  M2t-2 -0.026 0.319 -0.08 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  M2t-3 0.026 0.308 0.08 ÃÆ' ¢Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚  M2t-4 0.045 0.259 0.17 Constant 0.001 0.015 0.05 6.6 Results of Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decompositions The results for the Impulse Response Functions are reported in Figure A-2. Impulse Response Analysis entails analysing the incremental impact of a shock to the whole system. Hence, we are primarily concerned about the behaviour of the short-run dynamics of the model in the presence of any external shock to the system. Figure A-2 shows the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the DSI. Four years of data are forecasted and their effects plotted via Impulse Response Functions. An interest rate shock causes the DSI to fluctuate initially, however, from the 15th month onwards, the effect from the shock recedes and in the 30th month, the effect dies out. An exchange rate shock results in a big dip in the DSI; this is in contrast to the long-run relationship found. The resulting fall from the shock increases over time, but from the 6th month onwards, the gap remains steady. There are no signs of convergence here, unlike the interest rates. A consumer price index shock leads to an incre ase in the DSI initially, but then the relationship becomes negative, which is consistent with the study. This effect is seen to increase slowly over time. Oil prices shock lead to a large increase in the DSI initially and the effect increases with time. Money supply shock leads to a slight fall in the DSI the first month, but then increases the DSI over time, which supports the cash flow effect of money supply. Table 6.6 reports the Variance Decomposition test results. Twenty months of the model are forecasted and the results indicate that most of the variations in the DSI are explained by the DSI itself. In the 5th period, 94.58% of the variation in the DSI was explained by shocks to itself, 2.09% by ER and 2.54% by OP. At the end of the 10th period, 4.98% and 5.65% of the variations in the DSI were explained by shocks to ER and OP respectively. The results obtained from VDCs combined with IRF indicate that the macroeconomic shocks explain a minority of the forecast error varia nce in the DSI, though, exchange rates and oil prices have a significant influence on the stock prices. It must be noted though that most of the shocks from the macroeconomic variables are permanent and persist for a long period. Table 6.: Variance Decomposition of DSI Period Std. Error DSI IR ER CPI OP M2 1 0.099 100.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2 0.151 99.032 0.199 0.336 0.015 0.414 0.005 3 0.188 97.691 0.129 0.595 0.011 1.553 0.020 4 0.223 96.372 0.108 1.059 0.249 2.127 0.086 5 0.253 94.578 0.085 2.098 0.443 2.541 0.255 6 0.281 92.929 0.069 2.985 0.513 3.063 0.441 7 0.305 91.460 0.064 3.680 0.511 3.617 0.667 8 0.326 89.925 0.066 4.206 0.476 4.292 1.034 9 0.346 88.560 0.068 4.613 0.442 4.988 1.328 10 0.363 87.356 0.073 4.9 76 0.411 5.650 1.535 11 0.380 86.291 0.078 5.239 0.382 6.299 1.711 12 0.395 85.270 0.083 5.479 0.355 6.934 1.879 13 0.410 84.255 0.085 5.732 0.330 7.546 2.053 14 0.423 83.282 0.084 5.977 0.310 8.136 2.210 15 0.436 82.348 0.082 6.211 0.294 8.714 2.351 16 0.448 81.449 0.079 6.417 0.282 9.279 2.493 17 0.459 80.579 0.076 6.605 0.273 9.833 2.633 18 0.470 79.731 0.073 6.784 0.268 10.375 2.769 19 0.481 78.910 0.069 6.949 0.265 10.908 2.898 20 0.491 78.109 0.067 7.102 0.265 11.434 3.022 To test for robustness, a VAR model was constructed in first differences, and IRF and VDC drawn from its estimates. The IRF demonstrated short-run results very similar to the IRF from the VECM model. The results for the VDC from the VECM and VAR models are also similar. A very low percentage of the changes in stock prices is explained by the variables, though exchange rate explains a high proportion of the changes in stock prices. Conclusion The study investigates the long-term relations between macroeconomic variables and the Dhaka stock market prices using Johansens methodology of multivariate cointegration analysis and Vector Error Correction Model. Variables such as interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index, crude oil prices and money supply were used to represent the macroeconomic forces while the Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Index was used to represent changes in the Dhaka stock market prices. The main findings revealed that there is a long-term relationship between the stock prices and the macroeconomic variables. According to the cointegration analysis and the VECM estimated in the study, the stock prices and macroeconomic variables are related significantly and in accordance with the hypothesized relationship. The interest rates were negatively related with the stock prices, implying that investors shift away from stocks when the deposit interest rates are high and vice versa. The exchange rate s are positively related with the stock prices meaning that Taka appreciation leads to lower money inflows and, hence, lower stock prices and vice versa. The consumer price index is found to be insignificant in explaining the stock prices. This was hypothesized as large price changes in Bangladesh may render an insignificant relationship between CPI and stock prices. The relationship between crude oil prices and stock prices was found to be negative and significant. The broad money supply is negatively related with the stock prices which confirms that expectations about tightening money supply in the future leads to higher interest rates and lower stock prices. This was significant at the 5% significance level. The short-term results of the VECM revealed that around 5.3% of the disequilibrium in the long-run model is corrected every month. The DSI and interest rates were negatively related with the stock prices and at the first lag; though, the latter lags were insignificant. Ex change rates, consumer price index, oil prices and money supply were also insignificant at most lags. Since the VECM results were inconclusive, the Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decompositions were undertaken. An interest rate shock causes the DSI to fluctuate initially, but a tendency to converge to equilibrium is seen. An exchange rate shock results in a large fall in the DSI initially, but the gap remains steady afterwards. A consumer price index shock leads to an increase in the DSI initially, but then the relationship becomes negative, which is consistent with the literature. Oil prices shock lead to a large increase in the DSI initially and the effect seems to increase slowly over time. Money supply shock increases the DSI over time, which supports the corporate earnings effect. The Variance Decomposition results indicate that that the macroeconomic shocks explain a small proportion of the forecast error variance in the DSI, though, exchange rates and oil prices have a significant influence on the stock prices. Most of the shocks from the macroeconomic variables are permanent and persist for a long period. In light of the analysis made in the study, policymakers and economists in Bangladesh need to be careful when they try to influence the economy through changes in key macroeconomic variables comprising the interest rates, exchange rates, consumer prices index and money supply. Since the Bangladesh economy is small, they should also be aware of international factors such as crude oil prices as these also have a significant impact on the economy. The Bangladesh stock market is an established capital market and its development is crucial for the growth of the country. Thus, the government and policymakers should aim to influence the key macroeconomic variables in a way that ensures that stock prices are stabilized and stock markets are performing in an efficient and effective manner. References Bespoke Investment Group, 2010, 2010 Country Stock Market Performance, https://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/3/2010-country-stock-market-performance.html, last accessed June 20, 2012. Bloomberg, 1997, Bangladesh Stock Market Lures Investors Hungry for Next Vietnam, retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchivesid=ajYCq0jTs6Forefer=india, last accessed 10th June, 2012 Bodhurta, N. J., Cho, C. D. and Senbet, W. L., 1989, Economic Forces and the Stock Market: An International Perspective, The Global Finance Journal 1(1) pp. 21-46 Bodie, Z., 1976, Common stocks as a hedge against inflation, Journal of Finance 31, pp. 459-470 Brown S., J. and Otsuki, T., 1990, Macroeconomic factors and the Japanese equity markets: The CAPMD Project, Japanese Capital Markets, Harper and Row: New York Bulmash, S. B. and Trivoli, W. G., 1991, Time-lagged interactions between stock prices and selected economic variables, Journal of Portfolio Management pp. 61-67 Cheng, A. C. S., 1995, The UK Stock Market and Economic Factors: A New Approach, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 22(1), pp. 129-142 Chen, N. F., Roll, T. and Ross, A. S., 1986, Economic forces and the stock market, Journal of Business 59, 383-403. Cheung, Y-W, and Lai, S.K., 1999, Macroeconomic determinants of long-term stock market comovements among major EMS countries, Applied Financial Economics, 9(1), pp. 73-85 DeFina, R. H., 1991, Does inflation depress the stock market?, Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 3-12 Diacogiannis, G. P., 1986, Arbitrage Pricing Model: A Critical Examination of its Empirical Applicability for the London Stock Exchange, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 13 (4), pp. 489-504 Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J., 1987, Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,  Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251-76 Fama, E. F., 1990, Stock returns, expected returns and real acti vity, Journal of Finance 45, pp. 1089-1108 Fama, F. E. and Gibbons, M., 1984, A comparison of inflation forecasts, Journal of Monetary Economics 13, pp. 327-248 Fama, F. E. and Schwert, W. G., 1977, Asset Returns and Inflation, Journal of Financial Economics 5, pp. 115-146 Flannery, J. M. and Protopapadakis, A. A., 2002, Macroeconomic Factor do influence aggregate stock returns, The Review of Financial Studies 15(3), pp. 751-782 Frimpong, M. J., 2009, Economic Forces and the Stock Market in a Developing Economy: Cointegration Evidence from Ghana, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences 16, pp. 123-135 Goldsmith, R. W., 1969, Financial Structure and Development, New Haven: Yale University Press Gunasekarage, A., Pisedtasalasai, A. and Power, M. D., 2004, Macro-economic influences on the stock market: Evidence from an Emerging Market in South Asia, Journal of Emerging Market Finance 3(3) 285-304. Gà ¼nsel, N. and Çukur, S., 2007, Th e Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on the London Stock Returns: A Sectoral Approach, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 10, pp. 140-152 Gurley, J. G. and Shaw, E. S., 1955, Financial Aspects of Economic Development, American Economic Review, 45, pp. 515-538 Gurley, J. G. and Shaw, E. S., 1960, Money in a Theory of Finance, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C. Gurley, J. G. and Shaw, E. S., 1967, Financial Development and Economic Development, Economic Development and Cultural Change 15(3), pp. 257-268 Harvey, C. R., 1995a, Predictable risk and returns in emerging markets, Review of Financial Studies 8, 773816 Hassan, M. G. and Hisham, A., 2010, Can Macroeconomic Factors Explain Equity Returns in the Long Run? The Case of Jordan, MPRA Paper 22713, University Library of Munich, Germany Hume, D., 1752, Political Discourses, Edinburgh: A. Kincaid A. Donaldson Johansen, S., 1991, Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegrating vectors in Ga ussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica 59, 1551-80 LeRoy, S. and Porter, R. D., 1981, The Present-Value Relation: Tests based on Implied Variance Bounds, Econometrica 49, pp. 555-574 Levine, R. and Zervos, S., 1996, Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth, The World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), pp. 323-339 Levine, R., 2004, Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 10766 Lintner, J., 1973, Inflation and common stock prices in a cyclical context, National Bureau of Economic Research Annual Report Ma, C. K. and Kao, G.W., 1990, On Exchange Rate Changes and Stock Price Reactions, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 17, pp. 441-449 Maysami, R. C. and Koh, T. S., 2000, A Vector Error Correction Model of the Singapore stock market. International Review of Economics and Finance 9, pp. 79-96 McKinnon, R.I., 1973, Money and Capital in Economic Development, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C. Mobarek, A. and Mollah, S. A., 2005, The General Determinants of Share Returns: An Empirical Investigation on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 8(4), pp. 593-612 Mookerjee, R. and Yu, Q., 1997, Macroeconomic variables and stock prices in a small open economy: The case of Singapore, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 5, pp. 377-388 Mukherjee, K. T. and Naka, A., 1995, Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model, The Journal of Financial Research 18 (2) 223-237. Nasseh, A. and Strauss, J., 2000, Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: A cointegration approach, The Quarterly Review of Economic

Black Cultures And Subcultures Within The United States

The Unites States is a true melting pot of ethnicities and cultures. For many members of minority groups a certain hybridity is readily adopted, but for others, cultural assimilation can be quite difficult. Chicana author, Sandra Cisneros described this phenomenon as â€Å"always straddling two countries†¦ but not belonging to either culture† (Doyle. 54). African American author, Alice Walker shared Cisneros’ sentiment, but focused her attention on the assimilation of black cultures and subcultures within the United States. Cisneros and Walker make the same poignant statement about the strains of cultural assimilation, with reconciliation of split identities as the goal, in their respective works, 1991’s â€Å"Woman Hollering Creek,† and 1973’s â€Å"Everyday Use,† yet their unique ethnic perspectives allow them to make it in surprisingly different ways. Cisneros’ family bounced back and forth between Mexico and the United States for most of her youth, which led to firsthand experience in the difficulties of growing up as a multicultural person (Doyle. 54-55). As an adult, she settled in San Antonio, Texas, but that feeling of not belonging to either culture never left her. She drew on this feeling as inspiration for many works, including â€Å"Woman Hollering Creek,† a short story about a Mexican woman, named Cleofilas, brought to live in the United States by her new husband. She is excited to leave her lazy brothers and old-fashioned father behind, and dreams of the endless possibilities thatShow MoreRelatedSubculture of Hip Hop: a Sociological Analysis Essay1471 Words   |  6 PagesIt all started with the birth of a nation. The shameful crimes that build this country rest on the backs of an enslaved people, yesterday in chains and with laws and today behind bars and within socialization. The tale is as old as our t ime.    The first slaves were brought to the Virginia Colony in the early 1600s. they were simply indentured servant whom would be released after working an agreed number of years. They came to America on a voluntary basis. Soon after, that model of slavery was replacesRead MoreSubcultures and Subcultural Marketing1424 Words   |  6 PagesSubcultures and Subcultural Marketing Introduction We are brought up to follow the beliefs, values, and customs of our society and to avoid behavior that is judged â€Å"unacceptable† or considered to be taboo. In addition to segmenting in terms of cultural factors, marketers also segment overall societies into smaller subgroups or subcultures that consist of people who are similar in terms of their ethnic origin, their customs, and the ways they behave. These subcultures provide important marketingRead MoreA Sociological Perspective On Homosexuality882 Words   |  4 Pages From the acquisition of blacks right to vote to the women’s rights movement our society is slowly progressing to a state of equality. One demographic that has been in the news lately is the homosexual community seeking rights to legally marry. A multitude of sociological concepts can be applied to topic of homosexuality in America. Topics ranging from the Functionalist theory to Marxism and ethnocentrism to subculture can all provide insight to the homosexual culture in America. One of the mainRead MoreThe Final Project : Being Black Essay1674 Words   |  7 Pages The Final Project: Being Black in America Alethea F. Brock Thomas Edison State College Abstract The course of African American’s history has been tumultuous over the last 400 years. America has become more diverse and while black Americans are still a minority, they are no longer the largest minority. This population shift has brought its own myriad of obstacles and while a minority, African Americans have had a much different path than immigrants that came later from South and Central AmericaRead MoreHip Hop: The Method of Expression1099 Words   |  5 PagesFrom the impoverished section of Bronx, New York arose a youth culture that spread throughout the community like wild fire. Within the gang-ridden, drug-infested streets, a depravation of creativity forced underprivileged African American youths onto the streets in search of an output for their imagination. It was within these streets that hip-hop appeared as the product of independence, self-realization, creativity, and pride. Hip-hop began between the transformations from the late 1960’s toRead MoreAn Alternative View On Punk Visual Language1308 Words   |  6 Pagesstyles and misaligns words for visual effect, presenting them diagonally or even upside down. Blunt information and strong opinions are rife in the fanzine rather than unbiased reviews, the author does not hold back with personal thoughts and simply states things as they are perceived by himself. Example Six ‘Rocket to Russia’ by the Buzzcocks is one of the Ramones’ most famous albums. The cover art for this was created in 1977 with the front depicting a photograph of the band members standing againstRead MoreVisual Kei : A New Subculture1691 Words   |  7 Pagesof the longest lasting subcultures within Tokyo, however, a new subculture trend is visually striking in a far opposite way. It s called Yamanba and it has people at a loss for words. Most are conflicted as to whether this subculture is attractive or a joke. Yamanba dress features vibrantly colored ultra feminine clothing, long teased colored hair with extensions, and bizarre face makeup that will make anyone take a second look. Yamanba is virtually a female only subculture that emerged from theRead MoreThe Lesbian Experience Of The Early And Mid Twentieth Century Essay1746 Words   |  7 PagesThe Lesbian experience in the early and mid-twentieth century seemed to be more obscured than the queer male subcu ltures. For many lesbians of the early and mid-twentieth century, to live as a queer woman and to still maintain social respectability meant that lesbians often had to live in the closet. I believe that that lesbian subculture was unknown and ignored because it was impossible for women to claim their identity as a lesbian; they were frequently viewed from the outside as sick, confusedRead MoreThe Latino/Hispanic Class Is The Only Racial Grouping Calculated1128 Words   |  5 Pagescalculated individually by the United States Census. According to the U.S. Census, a Latino/Hispanic individual can be of several nationalities. There is an extreme amount of variables in the cultural class, which may puzzle some individuals on what is considered to be a Hispanic person or something different. The census classification of Hispanic became approved about the late 20th century. The term has produced a lot of misunderstanding. In the 40s, Head of state Roosevelt made a contract in whichRead M oreThe Cultural Identity Of The African American Community1653 Words   |  7 PagesThe African American community has sat at the end of a discriminatory lens from the moment they set foot in the United States. For that reason, black communities have undergone the process of community building to ensure that all members feel a sense of belonging. Race, gender, nationality, ethnicity, poverty, and sexual orientation, all play a role in developing one’s identity and more often than not, these multiple identities intersect with blackness. Being that American society has deemed colored

Homo Suburbiensis, Drifters and Life

Homo Suburbiensis, Drifters and Life-Cycle, Bruce Dawe, a well renowned Australian poet was born in 1930 in Geelong Essay Homo Suburbiensis, Drifters and Life-Cycle, Bruce Dawe, a well renowned Australian poet was born in 1930 in Geelong. Who was once portrayed as an ordinary bloke with a difference. Bruce Dawe writes about ordinary Australian people in the suburbs confronting their everyday problems. He observes and records the sorrow and hardships of average people struggling to survive back in the 1940s. Mr Dawe emphasises his views by composing three of his great simple poems Home Suburbiensis, Drifters and my favourite Life-Cycle. Poem Homo suburbiensis-Latin term for humans that live in the suburbs. The poem shows a classical suburban household set on a quarter-acre block with a flower garden and lawn in front and a vegetable garden lawn at the back. Dawe maintains that there is one constant value in a unstable world where politics play a major role. The man is a suburban householder standing alone in his backyard on a quiet evening among his vegetables. Dawes captures humorous terms like its not much but its all weve got. The imagery suggests that Dawe is both celebrating suburbia, while in some ways puts down the suburban householders dreams: The rich smell of compost and rubbish. The space taken vastly by overcrowds dry land with drying plants represent the overcrowding of suburbia. His thoughts are lost escaping the pressures that comes with life. The traffic unescapable to his mind. Dawe shows a sympathetic look towards this person lost in a green confusion, as even in the retreat of his backyard he still cannot escape the lifestyle of suburbs. This is a good example of an ordinary life, as this particular person needs to escape the pressures, which highlight TIME, PAIN, LOVE, HATE, AGE, EMOTION, and LAUGHTER. All which are present and Dawe makes that aware of an ordinary life. Being achieved in his back yard. Dawe proposes that ordinary lifestyles are not just eat, work, sleep but the strains people have to face everyday. He goes into depths of peoples lives and makes their problems obvious to the readers. Dawe faces peoples problems that is not bought up everyday and are ignored. Another poem in which Bruce Dawe tackles the issue of ordinary people was Drifters this poem represents family who move from place to place, as the father needs to move by the demand of his job. The young children are growing up to learn no other way of life, as they are all waiting for the day they shall move again. The children get very excited about moving from place to place and the kids will yell truly. The eldest, she is seeing what she is missing out on and is becoming aware that there roaming lives may never change the oldest girl is close to tears because she was happy here. She realises she can not lead a normal teenage life as she is not stationed long enough, to become friends with people her own age. She is becoming frustrated with her life. From the above Dawe shows

How to Get the Best Paper Writing Service Cheap

How to Get the Best Paper Writing Service CheapYou can find a paper writing service cheap if you compare different providers, whether online or offline. It's important to compare the cost of your paper writing services with the cost of your competitors' writing services so that you can get the cheapest ones that are available.A good paper writing service will be happy to give you quotes based on what their actual requirements are. These requirements can be based on the total number of words in your output, the number of words per page, the size of the paper you need, and the level of quality you need to produce. You should be able to get a cost breakdown of your paper writing service.When you're comparing prices for your paper writing service, there are certain things you should remember. Firstly, you don't want to lose out on quality work just because of price. Secondly, you want to make sure that the price is right for your needs and not simply cost the lowest possible price.There is a lot of competition in this competitive industry. The prices of paper writing services are quite variable, although the more expensive ones tend to offer more quality. However, it is also true that there are cheaper options available too. Here are some tips to help you find the best paper writing service for you at the cheapest price possible.Use online comparison sites that allow you to compare the price of the service from many different providers. This will help you see that they all have a similar price structure. If one provider has a price different to another, you should check to see why. This is important because you might find that the cheap option is actually a poor quality service that you can't use.Once you know which option is the cheapest price for you, you should choose the one that offers the type of paper writing service you need and not the cheapest one. You might find a cheap price on paper writing service but not the best one for your needs.If you need a lot of high quality paper, you might need to get some paper writing services from several providers. This will help you compare the price of each provider's services so that you can get the cheapest price. Sometimes, getting multiple providers can be a very expensive option but you should still take this into account when trying to get the cheapest price.If you get quotes from a number of providers, it is easier to compare the price and quality of your paper writing service. It will be easier to choose the service that meets your needs and one that is affordable.